Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ty FranceBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-3
- Seth LugoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9France homered to left (399 feet).4–0
- 8Wallner homered to right center (404 feet).3–0
- 6France singled to right, Correa scored, Larnach to second.2–0
- 4Julien singled to right, Correa scored, Larnach thrown out at third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML MIN -110 / KC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- KC: Elo 55.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +41 Elo | KC 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.816th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.57th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–6 | Road vs home | 5–315th of 30 |
| 27th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 15109th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301487 | Elo rating | 150415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–7 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 16–12 KC in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.