Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ty FranceBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Waters scored.2–3
- 7India singled to left, Fermin scored, Waters to third.2–2
- 6Jeffers singled to center, Larnach scored, France to third.2–1
- 2France homered to left center (411 feet).1–1
- 1Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML MIN +100 / KC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- KC: Elo 53.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −8 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +21 Elo | KC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.522nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.67th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 5–417th of 30 |
| 26th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 15109th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301490 | Elo rating | 150116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 17–12 KC in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 29.