Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David FestaPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9France singled to center, Larnach scored, Bader to third.7–6
- 8Báez doubled to left, Sweeney scored.7–5
- 7Buxton homered to left (394 feet).6–5
- 7Keith singled to left, Carpenter scored.6–4
- 6Sweeney grounded into fielder's choice to second, McKinstry scored, Dingler out at second.5–4
- 6Dingler singled to right, Keith scored, McKinstry to third.4–4
- 6McKinstry singled to center, Greene scored and Torkelson scored, Keith to second.3–4
- 5Julien doubled to right, Buxton scored.1–4
- 5Buxton grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Castro scored, Correa out at second.1–3
- 5Correa singled to left, Wallner scored, Castro to third.1–2
- 5Torres singled to right, Dingler scored on throwing error by right fielder Wallner, Torres to third.1–1
- 2France singled to center, Buxton scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML DET +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +1 Elo | DET 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.425th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 1–226th of 30 |
| 15th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148226th of 30 |
| 11th of 301516 | Elo rating | 148923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–4 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 14–12 MIN in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 26.