New York Mets at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-4
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soto homered to center (405 feet), Acuña scored.5–1
- 6Vientos scored on error, Torrens safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Topa, Torrens safe at second on error.3–1
- 6Vientos doubled to right, Alonso scored.2–1
- 5Vázquez hit sacrifice fly to left, Larnach scored.1–1
- 3Alonso singled to left, Acuña scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML NYM +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +5 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +12 Elo | NYM 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.7 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 5th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 2–428th of 30 |
| 29th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 148924th of 30 |
| 5th of 301529 | Elo rating | 148823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–8 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–11 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.