Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Saggese doubled to right, Walker scored, Pozo to third.1–4
- 5Nootbaar homered to center (418 feet), Scott II scored and Saggese scored.1–3
- 1Paredes grounded out to second, Altuve scored, Peña to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML HOU -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- STL: Elo 47.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- HOU -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −12 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 7–413th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 30 |
| 9th of 301522 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–3 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.