St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor homered to right (401 feet).4–5
- 9Donovan homered to right (370 feet).4–4
- 8Torrens doubled to left, Nimmo scored.3–4
- 6Vientos homered to left (371 feet).3–3
- 6Arenado singled to left, Contreras scored.3–2
- 5Soto singled to right, Taylor scored.2–2
- 5Taylor tripled to right, Baty scored.2–1
- 4Walker singled to right, Donovan scored.2–0
- 2Pagés singled to right, Donovan scored, Saggese to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 63%
- ML STL +160 / NYM -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 60.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -170
- STL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.7 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +5 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +75 Elo | NYM 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 2.82nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 6–14th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148229th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–8 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 5–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–9 NYM in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.