St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Thomas SaggeseBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nootbaar singled to right, Siani scored.4–7
- 8Soto doubled to center, Lindor scored and Taylor scored.3–7
- 8Taylor doubled to right, Acuña scored.3–5
- 7Nimmo singled to center, Lindor scored, Soto to third.3–4
- 7Saggese doubled to left, Siani scored and Gorman scored.3–3
- 6Burleson grounded out to second, Donovan scored.1–3
- 5Alonso singled to center, Soto scored.0–3
- 3Soto hit sacrifice fly to left, Taylor scored.0–2
- 1Lindor homered to right (402 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML STL +115 / NYM -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +1 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +46 Elo | NYM 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 2.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 8–12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 148228th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15335th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–9 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 6–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–11 NYM in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.