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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast

Final/10SNY, MLB.TV, NBC 10, NBC Sports Phil, MLBN

Away

Phillies

13-12

3–4

at

Home

Mets

18-7

PHI 52%NYM 48%

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Citi Field · SNY, MLB.TV, NBC 10, NBC Sports Phil, MLBN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.

NYM75%50%75%PHIStart123456789Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Phillies
  • Alec BohmBatting3-5
  • Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Mets
  • Brett BatyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • David PetersonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 10Marte singled to center, Alonso scored, Nimmo to second.3–4
  • 10Alonso doubled to center, Lindor scored.3–3
  • 10Castellanos singled to left, Harper scored.3–2
  • 4Turner singled to right, Wilson scored, Rojas to second.2–2
  • 4Rojas singled to center, Sosa scored, Wilson to third.1–2
  • 2Baty homered to right (425 feet), Vientos scored.0–2

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Phillies 52%

Toss-upMiss
PHI 52%NYM 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
PHI 52%
ML PHI -120 / NYM +100
Pre-line forecast
PHI 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI 46%
Ratings vs. market
−6.3 pts
PHI: Elo 45.8%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
PHI -109
NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PHI 3.8 – 3.7 NYM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHINYMWhy
Team rating15221538Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+8+3PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYM +29 EloNYM 54.2%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 50.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYM 50.0%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastPHI 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatNYM
11th of 304.5Runs scored4.218th of 30
22nd of 304.6Runs allowed2.81st of 30
17th of 30−0.1Margin+1.53rd of 30
19th of 304–6Last 108–21st of 30
18th of 304–7Road vs home11–12nd of 30
21st of 301496Opponent Elo148628th of 30
9th of 301522Elo rating15383rd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PhilliesMets
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHINYM
Run line13–1113–11
Last 104–67–3
Favorite9–88–9
Underdog4–35–2
Overs–unders12–128–16
Overs–unders, last 108–24–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 15–17 NYM in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 32.