Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-5
- Joe RossPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Torrens singled to left, Alonso scored and Vientos scored, Winker to second.1–5
- 7Alonso doubled to left, Lindor scored.1–3
- 2Lindor singled to right, Azócar scored.1–2
- 2Rojas singled to center, Realmuto scored, Bohm to second.1–1
- 1Vientos doubled to left, Soto scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -130 / NYM +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 48.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- NYM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 3.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −9 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +12 Elo | NYM 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 2.81st of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 10–12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148529th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15354th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–10 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11 | 8–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 15–16 NYM in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 31.
- Apr 21PHI 4 @ NYM 5Picked NYM 54%Hit
- Oct 9PHI 1 @ NYM 4PlayoffsPicked NYM 52%Hit
- Oct 8PHI 2 @ NYM 7PlayoffsPicked PHI 51%Miss
- Oct 6NYM 6 @ PHI 7PlayoffsPicked PHI 57%Hit
- Oct 5NYM 6 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked PHI 60%Miss
- Sep 22PHI 1 @ NYM 2Picked PHI 57%Miss
- Sep 21PHI 3 @ NYM 6Picked NYM 52%Hit
- Sep 20PHI 12 @ NYM 2Picked NYM 50%Miss