Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Max KeplerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turner hit sacrifice fly to right, Happ scored, Suzuki to third.10–4
- 7Suzuki singled to center, Amaya scored, Happ to second.10–3
- 7Kepler homered to right (369 feet).10–2
- 6Schwarber doubled to center, Stott scored and Turner scored.9–2
- 6Turner singled to center, Rojas scored, Stott to second.7–2
- 5Suzuki singled to left, Amaya scored and Berti scored, Happ to second.6–2
- 4Harper doubled to center, Stott scored and Bohm scored.6–0
- 4Stott singled to left, Kepler scored, Bohm to second.4–0
- 4Rojas hit sacrifice fly to right, Realmuto scored, Kepler to third.3–0
- 4Bohm singled to left, Castellanos scored, Kepler to second, Realmuto to third.2–0
- 4Kepler singled to left, Schwarber scored, Realmuto to second, Castellanos to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PHI -115 / CHC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 44.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.3 – 3.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +35 Elo | CHC 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 6.21st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–9 | Road vs home | 9–37th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15271st of 30 |
| 12th of 301519 | Elo rating | 15375th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–13 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–4 CHC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.