Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ben CaspariusPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Pages singled to left, Taylor scored, Edman to third.2–9
- 5Pages homered to center (406 feet), Freeman scored.2–8
- 5T. Hernández homered to center (402 feet).2–6
- 2Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, E. Hernández scored.2–5
- 1Pages singled to left, Edman scored.2–4
- 1Edman grounded into fielder's choice to third, Freeman scored on fielding error by third baseman Hayes, Edman safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Hayes.2–3
- 1Freeman singled to right, Ohtani scored and Betts scored.2–2
- 1Valdez homered to right (383 feet).2–0
- 1McCutchen homered to center (407 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 74%
- ML PIT +270 / LAD -340
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.3%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -286
- PIT +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +110 Elo | LAD 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 74.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 73.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 20th of 305–10 | Road vs home | 11–34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 24th of 301472 | Elo rating | 15561st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–18 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 6–9 LAD in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.