Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Reynolds singled to right, Pham scored and Kiner-Falefa scored.9–3
- 9Kiner-Falefa hit a ground rule double, Frazier scored, Pham to third.7–3
- 5Kiner-Falefa reached on infield single to second, Frazier scored.6–3
- 4Adell doubled to left, O'Hoppe scored.5–3
- 4Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to center, Soler scored.5–2
- 4McCutchen homered to left center (417 feet), Cruz scored and Reynolds scored.5–1
- 3Ward homered to left (403 feet).2–1
- 3Hayes singled to center, Valdez scored, Bart to second.2–0
- 3Bart singled to right, Reynolds scored, Valdez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 63%
- ML PIT +160 / LAA -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 53.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -170
- PIT +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +16 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +24 Elo | LAA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 4–212th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149225th of 30 |
| 25th of 301466 | Elo rating | 145228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–17 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 3–8 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–4 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.