Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Alex CallBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Call hit sacrifice fly to center, Crews scored.1–6
- 7Cruz homered to right (385 feet), Valdez scored, Reynolds scored and McCutchen scored.0–6
- 7Davis grounded out to third, Kiner-Falefa scored, Valdez to second.0–2
- 5Davis homered to left (392 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML WSH -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −10 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +13 Elo | PIT 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.326th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–6 | Road vs home | 4–424th of 30 |
| 8th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301467 | Elo rating | 146824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–8 | 5–13 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–10 PIT in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.