Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Adam FrazierBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Frazier homered to right (347 feet), Pham scored.3–5
- 5Pham doubled to left, Suwinski scored.1–5
- 3De La Cruz scored on throwing error by catcher Rodríguez and Steer scored on Falter wild pitch.0–5
- 3De La Cruz scored on throwing error by catcher Rodríguez and Steer scored on Falter wild pitch.0–5
- 1Candelario homered to left (384 feet), Dunn scored.0–3
- 1Steer grounded into double play, third to second to first, Friedl scored, De La Cruz out at second, Dunn to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 61%
- ML PIT +145 / CIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 55.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CIN -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −15 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +35 Elo | CIN 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.719th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.55th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–5 | Road vs home | 2–424th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15126th of 30 |
| 24th of 301472 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–9 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 16–10 CIN in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 26.