Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Alexander CanarioBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Trevino grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Fraley safe at second on error by second baseman Valdez, Marte scored.2–5
- 7Valdez doubled to right, Canario scored.2–4
- 5Canario homered to center (402 feet).1–4
- 3De La Cruz homered to left center (388 feet), Espinal scored, Friedl scored and Dunn scored.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML PIT +100 / CIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 56.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +8 | PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +48 Elo | CIN 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.819th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.55th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–6 | Road vs home | 3–426th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15118th of 30 |
| 25th of 301471 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–10 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 16–11 CIN in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 27.