Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting2-4
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Nuñez singled to center, Rosario scored and Crews scored.3–0
- 1Wood homered to center (445 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML WSH +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −10 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +22 Elo | PIT 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.525th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 4–321st of 30 |
| 7th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 26th of 301465 | Elo rating | 147024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 5–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–10 PIT in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.