Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brad LordPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Enmanuel ValdezBatting2-2, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Pham scored, Frazier to second.3–10
- 8Pham singled to right, Hayes scored.3–9
- 8Hayes singled to left, McCutchen scored and Valdez scored.3–8
- 8Valdez doubled to right, Reynolds scored, McCutchen to third.3–6
- 8Ruiz singled to center, Nuñez scored.3–5
- 6Lowe singled to center, Wood scored on error, Lowe safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Cruz.2–5
- 6Wood grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Nuñez scored, Call out at second.1–5
- 5Valdez singled to right, Cruz scored and Frazier scored, Valdez out stretching at second, McCutchen to third.0–5
- 5Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to center, Pham scored.0–3
- 3Reynolds singled to left, Cruz scored.0–2
- 1Hayes singled to right, McCutchen scored, Hayes out stretching at first, Valdez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 64%
- ML WSH +165 / PIT -200
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.9%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -177
- WSH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +14 | WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +20 Elo | PIT 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.129th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.829th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 24th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 3–324th of 30 |
| 5th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 24th of 301468 | Elo rating | 146725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–7 | 4–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–9 PIT in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.