Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Reds- Santiago EspinalBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5De La Cruz singled to right, Friedl scored, Espinal to second.0–4
- 5Friedl grounded into fielder's choice to first, Marte scored, Wynns out at second.0–3
- 3Espinal singled to right, Wynns scored and Friedl scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 62%
- ML PIT +150 / CIN -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 58.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -161
- PIT +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +20 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +62 Elo | CIN 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.918th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.44th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–7 | Road vs home | 4–423rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150711th of 30 |
| 25th of 301469 | Elo rating | 149718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–11 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 16–12 CIN in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 28.