Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 1Cruz homered to right center (442 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML WSH +125 / PIT -150
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +1 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +16 Elo | PIT 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.524th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–7 | Road vs home | 5–420th of 30 |
| 8th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301465 | Elo rating | 147024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–9 | 6–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–11 PIT in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.