Cleveland Guardians at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Manzardo hit sacrifice fly to left, Noel scored.5–4
- 9Hayes singled to right, Frazier scored.4–4
- 9Frazier doubled to left, Pham scored and Valdez scored.4–3
- 7Manzardo homered to right center (374 feet), Ramírez scored.4–1
- 6McCutchen doubled to left, Reynolds scored.2–1
- 3Kwan homered to right (362 feet), Rocchio scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML CLE +100 / PIT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 47.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −7 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +19 Elo | CLE 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 13th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 6–622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 149124th of 30 |
| 15th of 301509 | Elo rating | 146724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–10 | 6–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–2 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.