Cleveland Guardians at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Valdez singled to left, Cruz scored, Valdez to second, Reynolds thrown out at third.10–7
- 9Reynolds singled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored, Cruz to second.10–6
- 7Valdez homered to center (405 feet), McCutchen scored.10–5
- 7Reynolds homered to right (372 feet).10–3
- 7Rocchio hit sacrifice fly to center, Arias scored.10–2
- 7Arias doubled to left, Noel scored and Santana scored.9–2
- 7Noel doubled to left, Thomas scored and Ramírez scored, Santana to third.7–2
- 5Ramírez scored on error, Santana safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Triolo.5–2
- 4Naylor doubled to center, Arias scored and Santana scored.4–2
- 3Bart singled to center, McCutchen scored, Valdez to second.2–2
- 3Manzardo doubled to right, Thomas scored, Ramírez thrown out at home.2–1
- 3Naylor homered to center (425 feet).1–1
- 1Cruz homered to left (369 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML CLE -125 / PIT +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +4 | CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +10 Elo | CLE 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 6–416th of 30 |
| 28th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 147124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–10 | 6–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–2 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.