Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Garcia hit sacrifice fly to right, Pasquantino scored.3–6
- 9Perez singled to center, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to second.2–6
- 8Arias scored on Long wild pitch, Martínez to third.1–6
- 8Arias scored on Long wild pitch, Martínez to third on wild pitch by Long.1–6
- 8Martínez hit a ground rule double, Manzardo scored and Noel scored, Arias to third.1–5
- 6Arias homered to right center (389 feet).1–3
- 5Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Naylor scored.1–2
- 4Arias reached on infield single to second, Santana scored, Manzardo to second.1–1
- 4Pasquantino homered to right center (383 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML KC +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −3 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +22 Elo | CLE 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 3.917th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
| 9th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 147929th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 150815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–9 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 15–15 CLE in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 30.