Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-3
- Shane SmithPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4
- Ben LivelyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jones walked, Santana scored, Noel to second, Manzardo to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 64%
- ML CHW +165 / CLE -200
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 67.0%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -177
- CHW +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +2 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +123 Elo | CLE 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.817th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.727th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.928th of 30 |
| 26th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 30 |
| 30th of 301409 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 13–13 CLE in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.