Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-4
- Jonathan CannonPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kwan reached on bunt single to pitcher, Naylor scored, Rocchio to second.1–6
- 4Kwan singled to left, Noel scored, Schneemann to second, Naylor to third.1–5
- 3Kwan homered to right (361 feet), Rocchio scored.1–4
- 1Manzardo homered to right (395 feet), Kwan scored.1–2
- 1Thaiss walked, Maton scored on Williams wild pitch.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 68%
- ML CHW +200 / CLE -240
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 64.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -212
- CHW +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.9 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −9 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +103 Elo | CLE 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 3.525th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 24th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148226th of 30 |
| 30th of 301408 | Elo rating | 150315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–4 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 13–15 CLE in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.