Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-2
- Kris BubicPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Santana singled to center, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second.0–7
- 8Rocchio scored on error, Ramírez safe at first on fielding error by third baseman India, Kwan safe at third on error.0–6
- 8Kwan singled to left, Hedges scored, Rocchio to second.0–5
- 8Martínez hit sacrifice fly to center, Jones scored.0–4
- 4Arias homered to right (394 feet), Manzardo scored and Noel scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML KC +105 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.1 – 3.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +17 Elo | CLE 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.719th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 10th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 147728th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Elo rating | 150515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–8 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 15–14 CLE in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 29.