Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, Kjerstad scored.1–9
- 8Kjerstad singled to right, Mullins scored and Mountcastle scored, Kjerstad to second.1–8
- 8O'Hearn homered to right (396 feet).1–6
- 7Laureano homered to left (393 feet).1–5
- 3Arias homered to center (424 feet).1–4
- 2Holliday homered to center (396 feet), Mullins scored, Mountcastle scored and Urías scored.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML CLE +115 / BAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.5 – 4.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −11 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +11 Elo | BAL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 2–428th of 30 |
| 28th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 150315th of 30 |
| 15th of 301511 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–6 BAL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.