Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Heston KjerstadBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bichette grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Lukes scored, Roden out at second.4–5
- 6Mullins doubled to left, O'Hearn scored on error and Westburg scored on error, Mullins safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Roden.3–5
- 6Rutschman homered to right center (426 feet).3–3
- 5Kjerstad homered to center (409 feet), Mullins scored.3–2
- 3Santander homered to right center (404 feet).3–0
- 2Bichette singled to right, Lukes scored, Roden to second.2–0
- 1Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Bichette scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML TOR +105 / BAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +13 | TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +40 Elo | BAL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 1–227th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150315th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Elo rating | 151412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–3 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 3–11 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–19 BAL in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 30.