Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Tyler HeinemanBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Story grounded out to second, Hamilton scored, Casas to second, Bregman to third.3–4
- 10Duran singled to center, Sabol scored.3–3
- 10Springer hit sacrifice fly to right, Giménez scored.3–2
- 8Refsnyder scored on García wild pitch, Bregman to third on throwing error by pitcher García.2–2
- 8Refsnyder scored on García wild pitch, Bregman safe at third on throwing error by pitcher García.2–2
- 8Refsnyder scored on García wild pitch, Bregman safe at third on throwing error by pitcher García.2–2
- 7Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Straw scored on error, Guerrero Jr. safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Story, Heineman out at second.2–1
- 7Heineman singled to left, Wagner scored, Straw to third.1–1
- 6Bregman singled to left, Duran scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML TOR +115 / BOS -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | 0 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +28 Elo | BOS 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 6th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–320th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 149720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–3 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–10 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 14–15 BOS in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 29.