Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Easton LucasPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Santander grounded out to second, Heineman scored, Guerrero Jr. to second, Bichette to third.6–1
- 8Bichette singled to left, Straw scored, Heineman to second.5–1
- 7Rafaela singled to center, González scored.4–1
- 6Bichette singled to center, Heineman scored and Straw scored, Roden to second.4–0
- 6Heineman reached on infield single to second, Schneider scored on throwing error by second baseman Campbell, Heineman to second, Straw safe at third on error.2–0
- 6Springer homered to center (422 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 66%
- ML TOR +180 / BOS -215
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.5%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -191
- TOR +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +17 | TOR: Easton Lucas: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +39 Elo | BOS 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.39th of 30 |
| 8th of 256–4 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 25 |
| 20th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–18th of 30 |
| 14th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–3 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–15 BOS in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 27.