Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting4-4, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-3
- Richard FittsPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lukes singled to center, Santander scored, Springer to third, Wagner thrown out at third.6–2
- 8Casas singled to left, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.5–2
- 7Wagner singled to center, Springer scored, Kirk to second.5–1
- 7Springer singled to right, Giménez scored.4–1
- 5Springer singled to left, Giménez scored.3–1
- 3Devers hit sacrifice fly to center, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.2–1
- 3Springer singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.2–0
- 3Giménez hit sacrifice fly to right, Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML TOR +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −2 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Richard Fitts: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +39 Elo | BOS 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 6.34th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.84th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 29 |
| 13th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Elo rating | 150315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–15 BOS in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.