Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Garcia doubled to right, Fermin scored and Isbel scored.4–2
- 4Perez homered to left center (394 feet), Pasquantino scored.2–2
- 2Schneemann doubled to left, Noel scored, Schneemann to third. Schneemann scored on throwing error by shortstop Witt Jr..0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 57%
- ML KC -150 / CLE +125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.2 pts
- KC: Elo 45.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -135
- CLE +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.6 – 2.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +9 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +33 Elo | CLE 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.116th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
| 10th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148129th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–10 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 15–16 CLE in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 31.