Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Straw reached on infield single to third, Giménez scored, Clement to second.7–6
- 8Bichette singled to left, Clement scored.6–6
- 8Schneider grounded out to second, Heineman scored, Clement to third.5–6
- 8Kirk doubled to left, Giménez scored.4–6
- 6Kjerstad scored and Mountcastle scored, Holliday safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Guerrero Jr., Holliday to second.3–6
- 6Straw singled to right, Clement scored.3–4
- 4O'Neill homered to left center (398 feet).2–4
- 3Rutschman grounded into fielder's choice to second, Henderson scored.2–3
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Schneider scored, Bichette to second.2–2
- 2Mountcastle homered to left (388 feet).1–2
- 2Kirk homered to left center (389 feet).1–1
- 1Henderson scored, O'Hearn to second on wild pitch by Berríos.0–1
- 1Henderson scored on Berríos wild pitch, O'Hearn to second on wild pitch by Berríos.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML TOR +120 / BAL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- TOR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −10 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +35 Elo | BAL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 15th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 2–223rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150216th of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Elo rating | 151513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–3 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–11 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–20 BAL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 31.