Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sánchez singled to left, Mountcastle scored.6–3
- 8Mountcastle doubled to left, Henderson scored.6–2
- 7Mullins homered to center (396 feet).6–1
- 6Kwan singled to right, Martínez scored.6–0
- 6Rocchio hit sacrifice fly to left, Arias scored.5–0
- 5Kwan homered to right (380 feet), Rocchio scored.4–0
- 5Naylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Martínez scored.2–0
- 3Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Naylor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 58%
- ML CLE +130 / BAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -140
- CLE +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −6 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +33 Elo | BAL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 17th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 2–327th of 30 |
| 28th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 151414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–6 BAL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.