Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kjerstad homered to right center (400 feet), Westburg scored.2–6
- 3O'Hearn homered to center (393 feet), Henderson scored and Rutschman scored.2–4
- 3Hedges homered to left (394 feet).2–1
- 3Schneemann homered to center (395 feet).1–1
- 1Henderson homered to left center (393 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML CLE +110 / BAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +13 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +31 Elo | BAL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 3–427th of 30 |
| 28th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 151514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–7 BAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.