Cleveland Guardians at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-3
- Paul SkenesPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Rocchio scored.3–0
- 7Manzardo homered to right (411 feet).2–0
- 3Kwan singled to right, Schneemann scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 61%
- ML CLE +145 / PIT -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -156
- CLE +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +15 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +14 Elo | CLE 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.525th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 6–521st of 30 |
| 28th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 146924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–10 | 6–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–2 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.