San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Trout homered to left (381 feet).3–2
- 4Trout homered to left (484 feet).3–1
- 3Adames singled to right, Yastrzemski scored, Adames thrown out at second.3–0
- 1Chapman homered to left (384 feet), Adames scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML SF -145 / LAA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- SF: Elo 57.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −1 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +53 Elo | SF 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–5 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 30 |
| 4th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 148925th of 30 |
| 14th of 301515 | Elo rating | 145128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–8 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–6 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–5 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.