Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-4
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pham singled to center, Frazier scored.3–0
- 5Cruz homered to center (463 feet).2–0
- 3Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to right, Kiner-Falefa scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 54%
- ML PIT +110 / LAA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- LAA: Elo 47.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −9 | PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +18 Elo | PIT 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.118th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–8 | Road vs home | 4–321st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149025th of 30 |
| 24th of 301469 | Elo rating | 144928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–17 | 10–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–4 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.