Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8E. Hernández homered to left center (376 feet), Edman scored and Smith scored.4–8
- 8T. Hernández homered to left (402 feet).4–5
- 7Ohtani doubled to center, Pages scored.4–4
- 7Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to first, Pham scored, Cruz out at second, Kiner-Falefa to third.4–3
- 5Freeman singled to right, Ohtani scored.3–3
- 5Cruz singled to right, Frazier scored and Pham scored.3–2
- 1T. Hernández scored on error, Edman safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Frazier, Edman safe at second on error.1–2
- 1T. Hernández doubled to right, Ohtani scored.1–1
- 1Cruz homered to center (399 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 70%
- ML PIT +215 / LAD -265
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.7%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -229
- PIT +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −16 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +90 Elo | LAD 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 10–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 24th of 301473 | Elo rating | 15541st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–17 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 6–8 LAD in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.