Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Neto homered to left (383 feet).3–4
- 4O'Hoppe homered to right center (376 feet), Ward scored.3–3
- 4Ward singled to center, Trout scored.3–1
- 2Gorski homered to left center (434 feet).3–0
- 1Hayes grounded into fielder's choice to third, McCutchen scored, Bart out at second.2–0
- 1Cruz homered to right (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 60%
- ML PIT +140 / LAA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- LAA: Elo 51.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAA -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 5.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +8 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +7 Elo | LAA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.725th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 30 |
| 25th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149023rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301471 | Elo rating | 144728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–17 | 10–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–4 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.