Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting3-3
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Hayes singled to center, Cruz scored, Valdez to second.3–0
- 5Cruz singled to right, Davis scored.2–0
- 1Valdez singled to right, Cruz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML PIT +185 / LAD -225
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.3%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -197
- PIT +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.5 – 4.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +20 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +110 Elo | LAD 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–9 | Road vs home | 10–23rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 24th of 301470 | Elo rating | 15571st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–17 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–8 LAD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.