Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting2-2
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kelly singled to left, Suzuki scored.9–0
- 8Swanson homered to left (341 feet).8–0
- 7Suzuki homered to center (396 feet), Tucker scored.7–0
- 7Tucker singled to right, Happ scored.5–0
- 5Crow-Armstrong homered to right (394 feet), Hoerner scored.4–0
- 4Kelly homered to left center (418 feet), Suzuki scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -150 / PIT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -135
- PIT +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +10 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +41 Elo | CHC 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 3.525th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.922nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–5 | Road vs home | 6–726th of 30 |
| 1st of 301526 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301532 | Elo rating | 146924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–15 | 10–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–10 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 17–9 PIT in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.