Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Turner reached on infield single to third, Kepler scored, Stott to second, Rojas to third.3–1
- 10Bohm hit sacrifice fly to right, Castellanos scored, Realmuto to third.2–1
- 3Turner singled to left, Stott scored.1–1
- 2Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Hoerner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML PHI +100 / CHC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −6 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +30 Elo | CHC 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 6.11st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 9–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15261st of 30 |
| 12th of 301522 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–13 | 14–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–4 CHC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.