St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gordon GraceffoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Reds- Santiago EspinalBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Brent SuterPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Espinal singled to center, De La Cruz scored.9–1
- 3Scott II singled to left, Walker scored, Pagés to second.9–0
- 3Pagés grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gorman scored, Walker third.8–0
- 3Walker doubled to left, Donovan scored and Contreras scored, Gorman to third.7–0
- 3Donovan singled to center, Winn scored.5–0
- 2Pagés homered to left (375 feet).4–0
- 1Contreras homered to center (421 feet), Nootbaar scored and Winn scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML STL +100 / CIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Petty (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +30 Elo | CIN 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 7–722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149222nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Elo rating | 150415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–15 | 17–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 14–14 CIN in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 28.