St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jose TrevinoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lux doubled to left, Hays scored.1–3
- 4Marte tripled to left, Lux scored.1–2
- 3Trevino homered to center (409 feet).1–1
- 1Arenado doubled to left, Nootbaar scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML STL +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +17 Elo | CIN 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–11 | Road vs home | 6–622nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149323rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301492 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–14 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–12 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 13–13 CIN in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.