Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-4
- Erick FeddePitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Donovan doubled to right, Nootbaar scored.7–1
- 4Yelich singled to right, Durbin scored and Turang scored.7–0
- 4Turang reached on infield single to second, Ortiz scored, Durbin to second.5–0
- 4Durbin singled to right, Collins scored, Ortiz to third.4–0
- 1Hoskins singled to right, Contreras scored, Frelick to second.3–0
- 1Frelick singled to center, Yelich scored, Contreras to second.2–0
- 1Contreras singled to left, Turang scored, Yelich to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML MIL -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- STL: Elo 47.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- MIL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +2 | MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +19 Elo | MIL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–11 | Road vs home | 10–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150511th of 30 |
| 9th of 301526 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–14 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 16–12 STL in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 28.