St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Scott BlewettPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nootbaar singled to right, Scott II scored.10–4
- 9Winn hit sacrifice fly to right, Pagés scored, Scott II to third.9–4
- 9Scott II doubled to left, Burleson scored, Pagés to third.8–4
- 8Gorman doubled to right, Contreras scored, Scott II scored and Nootbaar scored, Gorman to third.7–4
- 6Walker scored, Winn to second, Scott II to third on wild pitch by Lee.4–4
- 6Walker scored on Lee wild pitch, Winn to second on wild pitch by Lee, Scott II to third on wild pitch by Lee.4–4
- 6Winn singled to left, Burleson scored, Scott II to second, Walker to third.3–4
- 5Olson homered to left center (390 feet).2–4
- 4Riley reached on infield single to pitcher, Verdugo scored on error, Riley safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Pallante.2–3
- 4Verdugo doubled to center, Kelenic scored.2–2
- 4Murphy homered to left (374 feet).2–1
- 3Nootbaar homered to right (365 feet), Scott II scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML STL +120 / ATL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −6 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Scott Blewett (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +29 Elo | ATL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 7–25th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15133rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Elo rating | 15239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–10 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–7 ATL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.