Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin homered to left (345 feet).1–3
- 7Bichette doubled to left, Straw scored.0–3
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to left (412 feet).0–2
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Bichette scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATL -125 / TOR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −11 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +20 Elo | ATL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 10th of 301519 | Elo rating | 149620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–10 | 14–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–5 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.