Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching7.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Myles StrawBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Easton LucasPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clement singled to left, Santander scored.8–4
- 8Heineman doubled to left, Lukes scored and Roden scored.8–3
- 6Straw homered to left center (397 feet).8–1
- 5Riley homered to left center (444 feet), White scored and Albies scored.8–0
- 5Albies doubled to left, Allen scored, White to third.5–0
- 3Riley homered to left center (411 feet), White scored.4–0
- 1Murphy homered to left center (429 feet), Olson scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML ATL -115 / TOR -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 48.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +10 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Easton Lucas: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +11 Elo | TOR 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.920th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 30 |
| 1st of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 10th of 301519 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–9 | 13–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 5–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–4 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.