Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Rays- Danny JansenBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jansen hit a ground rule double, Morel scored.3–6
- 8Albies homered to right (342 feet).3–5
- 8Ozuna homered to left center (425 feet).2–5
- 6Jansen singled to center, Misner scored.1–5
- 6Morel homered to left (387 feet).1–4
- 4Jansen homered to left (358 feet), Misner scored.1–3
- 3B. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to right, Walls scored.1–1
- 1Olson singled to center, Riley scored, Ozuna to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML ATL +120 / TB -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- TB: Elo 50.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -130
- ATL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 5.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −10 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 1.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +6 Elo | TB 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 3.620th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 300–7 | Road vs home | 5–420th of 30 |
| 1st of 301531 | Opponent Elo | 146430th of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 149917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–2 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.