Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Caminero homered to left center (413 feet), Walls scored and Aranda scored.3–8
- 6Aranda singled to right, Mangum scored, Aranda to second, Walls to third.3–5
- 6Albies singled to center, Ozuna scored, Olson to second.3–4
- 6Olson singled to left, Harris II scored, Ozuna to third.2–4
- 6Harris II grounded into fielder's choice to second, Allen scored, White out at second.1–4
- 5Morel singled to right, Díaz scored, Mead to second.0–4
- 4Montes singled to right, Caballero scored.0–3
- 1Caballero singled to center, Caminero scored.0–2
- 1Díaz homered to right center (392 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML ATL -165 / TB +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- TB +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −19 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +35 Elo | ATL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.821st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 6–522nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 147030th of 30 |
| 9th of 301522 | Elo rating | 150016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–3 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.